A survey has revealed a sharp rise in confidence among sheep producers, driven by buoyant prices and optimism for improved seasonal conditions.
The latest Sheep Producers Intentions Survey (SPIS), conducted by Meat & Livestock Australia (MLA) and Australian Wool Innovation (AWI), reveals a sharp rise in producer confidence and strong intentions to grow flocks in 2026.
The October 2025 survey captured feedback from 1819 sheep producers nationwide, showing overall sentiment for the sheep meat sector has jumped 36 points to +78, up from +42 in 2024. This marks the highest sentiment score since the survey redesign in 2022.
MLA’s Market Information Manager, Erin Lukey said the results highlighted a significant shift in the national flock’s outlook.
“Producers are feeling positive about the next 12 months, with strong lamb prices and expectations of better weather underpinning confidence,” she said.
“Over half of respondents, 52 per cent compared to 40 per cent last year, plan to increase their flock size in 2026, while only 28% expect to reduce numbers.
“This is a clear signal of recovery and growth following challenging seasonal conditions in 2025.”
The main reasons for expansion include expectations of better lambing results next year, retaining more ewes, expanding sheep operations and anticipating good conditions during the next 12 months.
Meat breeds continue to grow, now representing 40 per cent of lambs, while Merinos have remained at 34 per cent.
Poor seasonal conditions impacted 2025 marking rates, with Merinos at 74 per cent (down from 81% in 2024), compared to prime lamb at 115 per cent and shedding breeds at 101 per cent.
Confidence in the wool industry has also improved significantly, with sentiment rising 38 points to +19.
While wool production remains low, prices have strengthened, with the Eastern Market Indicator reaching levels not seen since mid-2022.
South Australia stands out as one of the most optimistic states in the October 2025 survey. Sentiment surged 50 points to +81, making SA one of the highest confidence regions nationally.
Sixty per cent of SA producers plan to increase their flock size in 2026, compared to just 24 per cent expecting a decrease.
AWI SA industry relations officer Shannon Donoghue said after an incredibly tough two years it was fantastic to see many producers bounce back with the rain.
“Whilst the drought is still ongoing throughout the Mallee and Riverland, the general sentiment of SA producers has drastically improved with the wool market on the rise with nearly three year highs and record breaking ewe and lamb prices,” she said.
“There was good clearance from the spring merino ram sales throughout the Mid North.
“This gives a clear indication that people are looking forward in their enterprises with a clear focus on replenishing flocks.”
The state’s positive outlook is underpinned by expectations of improved lambing results, with 56 per cent of SA respondents citing this as a key factor, and operational expansion.
AWN wool and sheep specialist Jared Phillips said the growth in sentiment was closely aligned with what he had seen in the Mid North and in fact, the figures underscored continued growth since the survey was conducted last month.
“Guys are starting to see way more feed, after heavily destocking the last 12 months due to the lack of feed and residual soil moisture, a destock of 30-40 per cent in some cases,” he said.
“The vast majority are looking to build up naturally and organically through their own growth.”
Mr Phillips said the current high prices were a double-edged sword, great for selling but quite a large outlay to buy back in.
“Some guys in a more secure position are building numbers immediately through those sales, looking to buy any they can at a half reasonable price because they’re so optimistic about prices holding,” he said.
“We’re seeing all avenues in sheep making excellent money, for me personally the overall sentiment is very positive.
“Everyone is trying to rebuild but there won’t be a massive recovery in the short term.
“For the growers in the Mid North, the outlook is very firm going forward.”
